New Delhi: Heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy falls very likely to continue over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Northeast India during next 4-5 days. ii. Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions likely to continue over northern parts of India during next 4-5 days.
Yesterday, Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions prevailed in most parts of West Uttar Pradesh; in many parts of Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, East Uttar Pradesh; in isolated pockets of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal; Heat wave conditions in some parts of Uttarakhand, northwest Rajasthan; in isolated pockets of Jammu division, Himachal Pradesh, northeast Rajasthan, northeast Madhya Pradesh and north Chhattisgarh.
❖ Yesterday, Warm night conditions observed in isolated pockets of northwest Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh. ❖ Yesterday, Maximum temperatures were in the range of 45-47°C over some parts of west Jharkhand, south Uttar Pradesh, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Punjab, north Rajasthan. ❖ Yesterday, the highest maximum temperature of 47.5°C was reported at Kanpur (East Uttar Pradesh) over the country. ❖ Heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls observed at isolated places over Meghalaya, Sikkim; Heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal; heavy rainfall at isolated places over Assam, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, West Madhya Pradesh, North Interior Karnataka and Telangana. ❖ Gusty winds/squally winds data reported over the country is attached in Annexure II. Advance of Southwest Monsoon: ❖ The Northern Limit of Monsoon continues to pass through 20.5°N/60°E, 20.5°N/63°E, 20.5°N/70°E, Navsari, Jalgaon, Amravati, Chandrapur, Bijapur, Sukma, Malkangiri, Vizianagaram, 19.5°N/88°E, 21.5°N/89.5°E, 23°N/89.5°E and Islampur. (Annexure III) ❖ Conditions are favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into some more parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & northwest Bay of Bengal during next 3-4 days. Weather Systems and Forecast & Warnings: (Annexure IV) ❖ A cyclonic circulation lies over northeast Assam & neighbourhood and an east-west trough runs from northwest Bihar to Nagaland in lower tropospheric levels. A north-south trough runs roughly along Long. 91°E to the north of Lat. 23°Nin lower & middle tropospheric levels.
Strong southwesterly/southerly winds are prevailing from Bay of Bengal to northeastern States in lower tropospheric levels. Under their influence: ✓ Widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during next 7 days. ✓ Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh during next 5 days and isolated heavy rainfall over Nagaland during 14th-17th June, 2024. ✓ Isolated extremely heavy rainfall also likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 14th and over Meghalaya on 13th & during 15th-17th June, 2024. ✓ Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) very likely over Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha during next 5 days. ✓ Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Odisha on 13th, 14th &17th June, 2024.
❖ Strong westerly winds are prevailing along the west coast of India. A trough runs from Telangana to central parts of Bay of Bengal in lower & middle tropospheric levels. Under their influence: ✓ Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (40-50 kmph) likely over Konkan & Goa during next 5 days and over Madhya Maharashtra & Marathwada on 13th June, 2024. ✓ Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (30-40 kmph) likely over Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands; isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during next 5 days. ✓ Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Kerala & Mahe on 16th & 17th; Coastal & North Interior Karnataka and Konkan & Goa on 13th June, 2024.
❖ A cyclonic circulation lies over southwest Rajasthan & neighbourhood in lowest & middle tropospheric levels. Under its influence; light to moderate isolated to scattered rainfall with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds (40-60 kmph) very likely over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh during next 5 days and over Rajasthan during next 3 days.
❖ A fresh feeble Western Disturbance as a trough in middle tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level runs roughly along Long. 72°E to the north of Lat. 32°N. Under its influence; light to moderate isolated rainfall with thunderstorm, lightning very likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-GilgitBaltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan on 13th & 14th June and Punjab, Haryana on 14th June, 2024. Maximum temperature forecast for next 5 days:
❖ No significant change in maximum temperatures very likely over most parts of the country. Heat Wave and Warm Night warning for next 5 days:
❖ Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions very likely in some/many parts of Uttar Pradesh during 13th17th; Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand during 13th-15th and isolated heat wave over Jharkhand on 16th June, 2024.
❖ Heat wave conditions very likely in some pockets of Punjab and Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi during next 5 days with severe heat wave conditions in isolated pockets on 13th, 16th & 17th June.
❖ Heat wave conditions very likely in isolated to some pockets of Himachal Pradesh, Jammu Division, northeast Madhya Pradesh during 13th-16th; northeast Rajasthan on 13th; northwest Madhya Pradesh on 14th & 15th; Uttarakhand, north Chhattisgarh and Odisha on 13th & 14th and northwest Rajasthan on 13th & 17th June, 2024.
❖ Warm night conditions very likely in isolated pockets of northeast Madhya Pradesh and West Uttar Pradesh on 13th & 14th June, 2024
