Beijing / Washington: The question of whether China can “tighten the screws” against Donald Trump during his presidency taps into a complex interplay of economic, strategic, and political forces shaping U.S.-China relations in 2025. As Trump returns to the White House with a platform centered on aggressive trade policies, including tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, Beijing faces both opportunities and risks in responding. The metaphor of “tightening the screws” suggests escalating pressure to counter Trump’s moves, whether through economic retaliation, geopolitical maneuvering, or exploiting U.S. domestic divisions. Yet, China’s ability to do so is not a simple matter of willpower—it’s constrained by its own vulnerabilities and the broader global context.
China, under Xi Jinping’s consolidated leadership, wields significant tools: a massive trade surplus with the U.S. ($103 billion in 2024), dominance in critical supply chains like rare earths, and growing influence in the Global South. These could be leveraged to hit U.S. industries, challenge Trump’s alliances, or amplify his political challenges at home. For instance, targeting American agriculture or tech giants like Apple could sting, while maritime posturing near Taiwan might test U.S. resolve. However, China’s economy is under strain—slowing growth (4.8% projected for 2025), a fragile banking sector burdened by bad loans, and a property crisis—making bold moves risky. Global pushback, from EU tariffs to India’s tech bans, further limits Beijing’s room to maneuver.
Trump, meanwhile, thrives on unpredictability, blending tariff threats with exemptions to shield U.S. firms, rallying his base against China, and forging bilateral deals to counter Beijing’s influence. This analysis explores China’s potential to escalate pressure, weighing its tools against its constraints and Trump’s counter-leverage. The outcome isn’t a one-sided power play but a high-stakes chess match where both sides face trade-offs.
1. Economic Pressure
China’s economy offers significant tools to counter Trump, but they’re double-edged.
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Tariffs and Trade Restrictions: Trump’s proposed tariffs (e.g., 145% on Chinese goods) could prompt China to retaliate with targeted tariffs, as seen in 2018-2019, hitting U.S. agricultural exports like soybeans (China accounts for ~50% of U.S. soybean exports, worth $14 billion annually) or pork. It could also impose export controls on critical minerals like rare earths, where China dominates 80-90% of global supply, impacting U.S. tech and defense industries.
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Effectiveness: This could hurt U.S. farmers and manufacturers, raising costs for consumers and pressuring Trump politically in swing states like Iowa or Ohio. It signals resolve to Beijing’s domestic audience.
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Limitations: China’s $103 billion trade surplus with the U.S. (2024 estimate) means it relies heavily on American markets. Retaliatory tariffs could disrupt its own supply chains, especially for tech firms like Huawei, and risk inflation at home. Global trade diversification (e.g., ASEAN trade deals) reduces but doesn’t eliminate this dependence.
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Currency Manipulation: China could devalue the yuan to offset U.S. tariffs, making its exports cheaper. It did this subtly in 2019, letting the yuan weaken to 7.1 against the dollar.
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Effectiveness: Devaluation could blunt Trump’s tariffs short-term, preserving China’s export edge.
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Limitations: This risks capital flight and further strains China’s banking sector, already shaky with bad loans (e.g., $2.7 trillion in non-performing assets estimated in 2024). It also invites U.S. sanctions or WTO complaints.
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Tech and Corporate Pressure: China could tighten regulations on U.S. firms like Apple (15% of its revenue from China) or Tesla (Shanghai plant produces 50% of its global output). It might also push state-backed firms to outcompete American ones in AI or semiconductors.
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Effectiveness: This could disrupt U.S. corporate earnings, creating domestic pressure on Trump from business lobbies.
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Limitations: Overreach could deter foreign investment, critical for China’s slowing economy (5% GDP growth in 2024, down from 6% pre-COVID). It also risks reciprocal U.S. actions, like export bans on advanced chips (e.g., NVIDIA’s 2022 restrictions).
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2. Strategic and Geopolitical Pressure
China could escalate tensions in Asia or globally to challenge Trump’s foreign policy.
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South China Sea and Taiwan: China could intensify maritime patrols or military drills near Taiwan or disputed reefs, as seen in October 2024 with joint Russia-China exercises. This tests Trump’s commitment to allies like Japan and the Philippines.
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Effectiveness: It forces Trump to divert resources and attention, potentially exposing U.S. hesitancy if he prioritizes domestic issues. It also rallies nationalist support at home.
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Limitations: Escalation risks miscalculation, like a naval clash, which China wants to avoid given its focus on economic stability. It could also solidify U.S.-led alliances (e.g., Quad, AUKUS), isolating Beijing.
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Diplomatic Maneuvering: Xi Jinping’s 2024 Southeast Asia tour and BRICS expansion show China courting the Global South to counter U.S. influence. It could push trade deals or yuan-based transactions to weaken the dollar’s dominance.
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Effectiveness: This dilutes U.S. leverage in forums like the UN and builds anti-tariff coalitions, complicating Trump’s “America First” agenda.
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Limitations: Many nations hedge between the U.S. and China, wary of Beijing’s debt-trap diplomacy (e.g., Sri Lanka’s $7 billion debt). China’s influence is strong but not decisive.
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3. Political and Informational Leverage
China could exploit U.S. domestic divisions to weaken Trump’s position.
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Influence Operations: While less overt than Russia, China could amplify divisive narratives on platforms like X, targeting issues like tariffs’ impact on U.S. consumers or rural voters.
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Effectiveness: Subtle campaigns could erode Trump’s base, especially if economic pain from trade wars mounts.
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Limitations: China’s clunky propaganda often backfires, and U.S. scrutiny of foreign influence (e.g., TikTok bans) limits reach. Overt moves risk galvanizing bipartisan anti-China sentiment.
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Exploiting U.S. Divisions: China could align with Trump’s critics in business (e.g., Elon Musk’s Tesla ties) or politics, indirectly pressuring policy shifts.
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Effectiveness: This could amplify internal U.S. debates, delaying or softening Trump’s policies.
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Limitations: Trump’s nationalist rhetoric thrives on anti-China framing, making concessions politically toxic. China’s influence over U.S. elites is overstated.
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4. China’s Constraints
China’s ability to escalate is curbed by domestic and global factors:
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Economic Fragility: China’s GDP growth is projected at 4.8% for 2025, with property sector debt (e.g., Evergrande’s $300 billion collapse) and local government deficits (~$13 trillion) straining resources. Aggressive moves could backfire, especially if global demand for Chinese goods drops.
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Banking Risks: Non-performing loans and shadow banking issues (estimated $10 trillion exposure) make currency or trade gambits risky. A banking crisis would dwarf external gains.
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Global Pushback: U.S. allies like the EU (33% tariffs on Chinese EVs in 2024) and India (banning Chinese apps) are aligning against China, limiting its room to maneuver.
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Xi’s Priorities: Xi’s focus on party control and stability (evident in 2024’s tightened censorship) means he’ll avoid reckless escalation that could spark unrest or elite dissent.
5. Trump’s Counter-Leverage
Trump’s policies give him tools to resist or escalate:
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Tariffs and Exemptions: His 145% tariff threat is softened by exemptions (e.g., smartphones, 80% of which come from China), showing flexibility to protect U.S. firms. This keeps China guessing.
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Alliances: Trump’s pivot to bilateral deals (e.g., with Japan, South Korea) could isolate China further, especially if he courts India or Vietnam.
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Domestic Narrative: Trump frames China as a threat, rallying support. Economic pain from tariffs might be spun as necessary sacrifice, blunting China’s political leverage.
Conclusion
China can tighten the screws through targeted tariffs, tech restrictions, regional posturing, or diplomatic plays, but it’s not a chokehold—it’s a calculated jab. Each move risks self-harm, given China’s economic woes and global headwinds. Effectiveness hinges on precision (e.g., hitting U.S. agriculture) without overreach (e.g., military missteps). Trump’s unpredictability and domestic support give him resilience, but internal U.S. divisions offer China openings. The dynamic is less a one-sided squeeze than a mutual test of endurance, with both sides constrained by their own vulnerabilities.
