Lucknow: Voting is to be held first on eight seats of Western UP. Along with the political parties, the political equations that have changed in this area in the first phase are also on the test. The biggest test is for BJP. In fact, out of the eight Lok Sabha seats where elections are to be held, in 2019, BJP had to face defeat on five of these seats, whereas on Muzaffarnagar seat too, the victory-defeat margin was very less. But this time the situation is different. Political situations have also changed due to change in party friends.
In the first phase, elections are to be held on Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Moradabad, Rampur, Nagina (Uttar Pradesh), Bijnor (Uttar Pradesh) and Pilibhit Lok Sabha seats. The process of nomination for these seats ended on Wednesday. In the 2019 elections, the grand alliance of SP-BSP and RLD was against BJP. Congress fought separately.
Due to the share of Jat votes along with Dalits, Muslims and Yadavs, the Grand Alliance had become a challenge for the BJP on many seats in Western UP. Then the Grand Alliance had won the seats of Saharanpur, Moradabad, Rampur, Nagina and Bijnor. Among the seats in the first phase, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar and Pilibhit seats were then BJP’s share. BJP had snatched Rampur seat from SP in the by-election.
Gandhi family left Pilibhit seat after 35 years, Maneka and Varun Gandhi kept winning the seat since 1989.
BJP is considering triangular contest as favorable. This time the election circumstances have changed. BSP is fighting on its own in the electoral battle. There is a significant number of Dalit votes in all the seats of the first phase including Nagina, Bijnor, Moradabad, Saharanpur. The population of Dalits is about 23 percent in Saharanpur, about 17 percent in Kairana, about 21 percent in Muzaffarnagar, about 23 percent in Bijnor, about 22 percent in Nagina, about 17 percent in Rampur and Pilibhit and about 15 percent in Moradabad.
With BSP fighting separately, a situation of triangular contest is being created. BJP is considering it favorable for itself whereas RLD is now a part of NDA and the Bijnor seat of the first phase is in its account. With RLD coming together, there is no longer any danger of Jat votes getting scattered. In these circumstances, the SP, which is fighting in alliance with the Congress, faces the challenge of repeating its previous performance.
