Patna: The Bihar Assembly elections of 2025 will be remembered not merely for the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) thundering triumph, but for the Indian National Congress’s staggering collapse—a fall so dramatic that it has reshaped conversations about the future of opposition politics in India. As the dust settled on November 14, after a record-breaking voter turnout—the highest in the state since 1951—it became unmistakably clear: Bihar had delivered a mandate that was as much about reaffirming faith in the ruling NDA as it was a blunt, unforgiving verdict on Congress’s shrinking relevance.
For the NDA, led by Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the results were emphatic. A tally crossing 200 seats in a 243-member assembly—transforming a comfortable majority into a supermajority—reflected a wave of support for what voters perceived as “double-engine sarkar”: local stability powered by national-level momentum under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Nitish Kumar, despite years of incumbency and recurring speculation about fatigue, benefited immensely from this synergy. Women voters, who turned out at an unprecedented 71.6%, rewarded him for welfare schemes that directly touched their lives. Youth, grappling with unemployment and migration, viewed the NDA as the more credible vehicle of opportunity.
But beyond the numbers of the victorious alliance lies the other, far more consequential storyline: the Indian National Congress (INC) suffered one of its worst electoral defeats in Bihar’s history, reduced to a humiliating 4–6 seats out of the 61 it contested. Its strike rate—hovering below 10%—was worse than several smaller parties and even debutant outfits that failed to win a seat. Its vote share, around 8%, dipped below even Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM in some minority pockets. What unfolded was not just a poor performance; it was an existential crisis laid bare.
The Scale of Collapse
To appreciate the enormity of Congress’s rout, one must trace its trajectory. In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, Congress had contested 70 seats, winning 19, with a respectable 27% strike rate. It was an imperfect but respectable showing for a party that had long ceded ground in Bihar to regional titans like RJD. Its presence strengthened the Mahagathbandhan—its Muslim-Yadav support base, bolstered by Congress’s secular signaling, created pockets of resilience.
But by 2025, everything had changed. The party failed to maintain influence in the Seemanchal belt—once a traditional stronghold—where AIMIM sliced minority votes even as RJD retained pockets of loyalty. Congress candidates struggled not only against well-oiled NDA machinery but also against allies occupying the same ideological lane. The result was a muddled message, confused voters, and a collapse in competitiveness.
As election day approached, Congress found itself leading in only a handful of seats—Valmiki Nagar, Kishanganj, Manihari, Begusarai—before final tallies shrunk expectations even further. Meanwhile, RJD, though also battered, managed to maintain a vote share higher than the BJP’s, highlighting how unequal vote distribution and the first-past-the-post system punished the opposition.
The NDA’s surge—BJP crossing 90 seats, JD(U) touching the 80 mark, and Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) hitting double digits—was powered by Modi’s 14 rallies, Nitish’s “sushasan” narrative, and an opponent crippled by disunity and drift.
The Internal Implosion
Congress’s defeat in Bihar is not an isolated event—it is the culmination of years of organizational degradation. Bihar’s Congress unit has long been beset by infighting, weak leadership, and the absence of charismatic state-level faces capable of mobilizing ground support. Since 2020, the exodus of local satraps, district chiefs, and booth-level convenors to the BJP and JD(U) has hollowed out the party. Workers complain of chronic underfunding, outdated campaign methods, and a high command disconnected from ground realities.
Rahul Gandhi’s “Voter Adhikar Yatra,” launched amid claims of “vote deletion” during the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise, briefly reignited attention—but fizzled quickly after he left the state. His absence in the crucial final weeks of campaigning sent a message: Congress’s primary leader was simply not invested enough. Meanwhile, Tejashwi Yadav camped aggressively across rural belts, amplifying RJD’s caste-centric messaging even as Congress’s rhetorical line—focused on “saving democracy”—struggled to resonate.
Strategically, Congress repeated its biggest error from 2020: demanding more seats than it could realistically win. Contesting 61 seats despite a weak ground presence proved disastrous, splintering votes in key battlegrounds and weakening the Mahagathbandhan’s overall cohesion. Its candidates often lacked local clout, struggled to counter NDA micro-targeting, and appeared disconnected from Bihar’s rapidly evolving aspirations.
The result was a self-inflicted wound that bled into the larger alliance. RJD—while still the single-largest opposition party in terms of vote share—lost nearly 50 seats compared to 2020. The Left saw setback too. But Congress’s numbers were uniquely humiliating.
The Demographic Disconnect
Perhaps the most defining factor in Congress’s collapse was its complete failure to connect with two voter groups who shaped the 2025 outcome: women and youth.
Women voters have decisively outnumbered men in Bihar elections since 2010. Nitish Kumar’s social welfare schemes—free cycles, uniforms, school attendance incentives, pensions, health insurance—have fostered a durable loyalty. In 2025, women voted with unprecedented unity, powering the NDA to a level of dominance unseen since the Lalu-era’s end.
Congress, meanwhile, offered only abstract “gender justice” rhetoric with little ground-level impact.
Among youth, the disillusionment was even clearer. Bihar’s median age is just over 20—the youngest in India. For years, unemployment, migration, and skill shortages have dominated their concerns. Yet Congress failed to offer a program that felt concrete or immediate. Its “nyay” narratives lacked clarity, while its image continued to be associated with abstract moral posturing.
In contrast, the NDA’s messaging—driven by Modi’s personal popularity—promised jobs, infrastructure, investment, and inclusion. Even Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, with its focus on joblessness and rural distress, attracted a higher buzz among educated youth than Congress. Though JSP failed to convert its 5–7% vote share into seats, it damaged Congress more than the NDA.
The National Picture: Shadows Over 2029
Bihar’s verdict is not a regional aberration—it is a national omen.
Since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where Congress crossed 90 seats and claimed a “moral victory,” the party has stumbled in successive state polls—Delhi, Maharashtra, and now Bihar. Each loss diminishes its bargaining power within the INDIA opposition bloc. Regional parties like RJD, TMC, and DMK increasingly view Congress as a liability rather than a central force capable of challenging the BJP.
In Bihar, RJD’s better vote efficiency and sharper organizational presence validated that perception. Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, and Akhilesh Yadav are likely to cite this performance as evidence that Congress must cede space in Hindi-speaking regions if a united opposition is to be competitive in 2029.
Meanwhile, the BJP views Bihar’s mandate as a springboard for its eastern expansion—particularly its 2026 challenge to Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal. Modi’s symbolic statement that “the Ganga now flows from Bihar to Bengal” signals this strategy.
For Congress, Bihar signals a harsh truth: it no longer commands trust in the Hindi heartland. Its attempts to revive old bastions have fallen flat. Its leadership remains in a loop of high-decibel national rhetoric unaccompanied by grassroots political rehabilitation.
What Must Congress Do?
The path forward is narrow but not impossible.
The party needs structural reforms, beginning with decentralizing leadership. Regional satraps with proven electoral instincts—leaders like DK Shivakumar, Bhupesh Baghel, Ashok Gehlot—must be empowered to operate without constant approval from Delhi. Youth wings and digital campaigns must be strengthened to engage Gen Z and rural aspirants.
The party must also stop overplaying vague tropes like “saving democracy” and instead articulate policies on jobs, industry, healthcare, and urban-rural balance.
Seat-sharing strategies must be realistic, not ego-driven. The Bihar fiasco shows that contesting more seats is meaningless without presence on the ground.
Most importantly, Congress needs a leader who can anchor the party with sustained focus and on-ground engagement. Rahul Gandhi’s intermittent involvement no longer inspires confidence—not among allies, not among cadres, and increasingly, not among voters. Whether that leadership transition involves Priyanka Gandhi, Sachin Pilot, or someone outside the family, the shift must be decisive.
The Final Word
Bihar’s 2025 mandate is a turning point. For the NDA, it marks a consolidation of power and validation of governance-driven politics. For the Congress, it is a sobering portrait of irrelevance—an urgent call for reinvention.
The message from Bihar’s electorate is clear: performance trumps pedigree, clarity beats confusion, and political legacy holds no currency without grassroots credibility.
For Congress, the question is no longer whether it can win Bihar again.
The question is whether it can survive.
