Post 2024, BJP will definitely go to the drawing board

Lucknow: After the Lok Sabha election results, the most discussion in the BJP ruled states is about the election results in Uttar Pradesh because the atmosphere that was created in favour of BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, seems to be almost collapsing in 10 years.

BJP, which got 71 seats in 2014 and 62 seats in 2019, got reduced to 33 seats this time, the direct effect of which was that BJP’s seats at the center remained at 240. Although the government has been formed with the support of NDA allies, but now it will be inevitable for the Prime Minister to take the support of allies for every tough decision.

In this election, BJP had given the slogan of 370 for itself and 400 for the alliance, but the alliance also could not cross the figure of 300. After the election, before the counting of votes, 65-70 seats were being estimated in Uttar Pradesh, but when the results came out completely opposite, speculations are being made about the reasons for the defeat as well as future challenges.

After the consecration of Ram Lalla, seeing the enthusiasm of Ram devotees, political analysts including BJP had estimated that BJP will clean sweep many states of the country including Uttar Pradesh this time.

BJP got 100% seats in six states of the country, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Arunachal and Andaman Nicobar, while it got 20 out of 21 seats in Odisha, 25 out of 26 seats in Gujarat, 10 out of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh, 9 out of 14 seats in Assam and 8 out of 14 seats in Jharkhand. On the other hand, Congress, which claimed that the atmosphere and mandate was in its favour, did not even open its account in 12 states.

These are not small states but it also includes those states where Congress is in power or has been in power. Congress is in power in Himachal, it was a contender for power in Madhya Pradesh last year, it has an alliance with the ruling Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi.

Congress has been claiming its influence in states like Andhra Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Tripura etc. but its result here has been zero. Apart from these figures, if we talk about Uttar Pradesh, out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state, BJP contested 75 seats and 05 seats were contested by allies, RLD 02, Apna Dal 02 and Subhaspa 01, but BJP could get only 33, RLD 02 and Apna Dal 01 seat.

The party and political analysts are worried about such a poor performance of BJP in the state because even in the pre-election surveys, the figures of the party’s much better performance were presented.

BJP is upset with the defeat in Ayodhya

Only two years have passed since the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, but in these two years, the performance of BJP has become very disappointing. All the big leaders, ministers, organization officials of BJP lost the elections. Out of 29 seats in Western UP, BJP won 14 and ally RLD won 02, whereas in 2019 BJP got 21 seats. If we talk about Purvanchal, out of 12 parliamentary seats in Varanasi, Azamgarh and Mirzapur, BJP won only 02 and its ally Apna Dal won 01. Out of 05 seats in Dharamnagari Prayagraj division, BJP could save only 01 seat, Phulpur, whereas last time it had won all the seats. BJP had to face defeat in 05 seats of Ayodhya division, whereas in 2019 it had 04 seats, but the seat on which BJP’s defeat is being discussed in the country and abroad is “Ayodhya”, which is still recorded in the records as Faizabad.

After 500 years of struggle, the Ram wave that arose in Ayodhya with the establishment of Ram temple in January 2024, “We will bring those who bring Ram”, could not be converted into votes in favor of BJP even on Faizabad Lok Sabha seat. In the 2022 assembly elections, BJP had hoisted the victory flag on 04 of the 05 assembly constituencies falling under this Lok Sabha seat, Ayodhya, Rudauli, Bikapur and Dariyabad, while SP’s Awadhesh Prasad won the Milkipur (reserved) seat, who has now been elected MP.

In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP candidate got a lead of only 4,600 votes from Ayodhya assembly constituency, whereas in the previous elections it used to be more than 50 thousand. The margin of victory in the assembly elections was about 20 thousand.

Many reasons are being cited for the defeat of BJP candidate Lallu Singh Chauhan, including displacement of many people due to the development taking place in Ayodhya and not getting proper compensation, viral message of making BJP win more than two-thirds of the seats to change the Constitution, buying land at cheap prices at the local level and selling it at high prices, the PDA equation of SP-Congress along with the displeasure of the common people with the government became the main reason. BJP candidate Lallu Singh Chauhan was contesting the elections thinking that votes will be received in the name of Modi and Yogi along with Ram. Even while being in power, he kept ignoring the problems of the people.

Most of the displaced people around the temple could not get actual compensation because they did not have the ownership of the land but it is also true that they had been occupying that land for 50, 70 years. The SP candidate linked his statement of 400 seats to change the constitution with reservation and made a successful attempt to convince his Dalit community that the BJP wants to end reservation. The most notable thing is that Ram Chandra Yadav is a BJP MLA in Rudauli and he had won the election by 40 thousand votes but in the Lok Sabha, the BJP lagged behind by 12 thousand votes here.

Daryabad and Ayodhya assembly constituencies used to play a big role in the Lok Sabha elections but this time the BJP candidate from Dariyabad lagged behind by 10 thousand votes. Due to this defeat, various allegations were made against the people of Ayodhya,

Accusations and rebukes are being made. Shyamji Choubey, who lives in Ayodhya, is saddened by this defeat but more than that, he is saddened by the defeat being linked to the construction and consecration of Ram temple. He says that the election was not fought on the issue of construction of Lord Shri Ram’s temple but on local issues and political equations of the parties. Despite all the opposition, the BJP candidate has taken a lead in Ayodhya.

2024 mandate

If we talk about the mandate of 2024 or the performance of Akhilesh Yadav, then the alliance of SP and Congress and his PDA formula is being called successful because in the 2014 and 2019 elections, SP somehow managed to save its existence and Congress was running on ventilator in the state. The disguise of the PDA formula which is being discussed repeatedly was clearly visible in the Rajya Sabha elections held before the general elections. All the MLAs of the party rebelled. Pallavi Patel joined hands with Owaisi’s party AIMIM and fielded her own candidates. Swami Prasad Maurya, a strong leader of Maurya community, also left before the elections.

Popular among Pal community, Puja Pal has also kept a distance from the party. Akhilesh Yadav did learn some lessons from the rebellion in the party over PDA, which was clearly visible in the ticket distribution. He tried to avoid being pro-Yadav and Muslim in ticket distribution. Out of 63 seats, only 05 Yadavs, who were from his family and 04 Muslims were given tickets, while other backward castes other than Yadavs were given 27 tickets and Dalits were given 17 tickets. Only 05 tickets came in the upper castes’ account. This time SP made every effort to woo Kurmi voters, they fielded 10 Patel candidates, out of which 07 were successful in winning the elections. Kurmis are the biggest voters after Yadavs.

Another effort was made to not field a Patel against BJP’s Patel candidate. The effect of this was that Kurmi, Kushwaha, Maurya, who were considered to be the core voters of BJP in 2014 and 2019, got trapped in the web of caste equations woven by SP and distanced themselves from BJP. The nominal leaders and ministers of BJP did not even try to attract them, the result of which is before us. A large percentage of voters are youth, most of whom are unemployed. They are holding the government responsible for their unemployment. The SP alliance attracted the youth along with their families by making unemployment and paper leak an issue. More than 50 lakh youth were affected by the constable recruitment paper leak alone. If their families are included, this number will go beyond crores.

The BJP government could not present its effective side on this issue. The candidates were not satisfied with the news of action being taken against the culprits of the paper leak. Similarly, issues related to farmers and labourers, inflation in daily use items, fertilizers, seeds, medicines not being available on time despite rising prices, promise of increasing the 5 kg ration given to the poor to 10 kg, promise of giving Rs. 8,500 per month immediately attracted voters towards Samajwadi Party. SP alliance linked BJP’s statement of crossing 400 for constitutional amendment to the abolition of reservation for backward and Dalits. This rumour added fuel to the fire. BJP’s public representatives and workers could not brainwash their voters here as well. Although if we look at the good performance of Akhilesh alliance, there was nothing new to tell, they had neither any achievements nor any vision to tell.

Rahul Gandhi did not mention any such public welfare scheme during campaigning in UP, which is becoming very popular in Congress ruled states. The alliance proved successful in creating anti-government sentiment in the state by showing its pseudo-sensitivity towards issues like caste equations, inflation, unemployment, reservation and everyone from the people’s representatives to the workers of BJP remained indifferent and kept hoping for victory with the help of Ram, Modi and Yogi. One of the major reasons for the SP alliance being effective was the separation of its core Dalit votes from BSP. Muslims were given preference in ticket distribution, but this time Muslims stayed away from BSP. Dalits, scared of the imminent threat of the end of reservation, expected support from the alliance, especially from Congress and among the Dalits, a large section of the Pasi community, which was with the BJP till now, also got attracted towards SP-Congress. The Indy alliance also benefited from this polarization of Muslim and Dalit votes of BSP.

Decreasing stature of people’s representatives-workers

The other thing that is being discussed along with the success of the SP alliance is the indifference of the people’s representatives to the booth level workers of BJP or it can be said that BJP workers were not seen struggling anywhere. The question arises why? In fact, when the government of other parties comes, the work of their workers is done rapidly, but this is not the case during the BJP era. It is a well-known fact that there is such centralization of power in the BJP in UP that even the lower level officers do not listen to the MLA, then what is the status of the workers? All the public representatives including the MLAs have to depend on the Chief Minister’s Secretary, Principal Secretary and Additional Secretary for their work. Due to the reduced role and importance of the workers in the party, the link with the voters has broken. Due to which any lie, propaganda of the opponents is getting established very easily. This is what happened in this election and its echo was already seen in the 2022 elections when the BJP’s seats in the state assembly elections were reduced from 325 to 255. Now the mandate of 2024 in UP. This is not giving very auspicious signs for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in the state for the 2027 assembly elections, to deal with which the BJP leadership will now have to sit afresh with the public representatives and workers and brainstorm on its strategy and politics.

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