Can the Modi juggernaut dent the Yadav bastion ?


Lucknow: Voting for the third phase of Lok Sabha elections is to be held on 7 May in Uttar Pradesh. All eyes are on Braj and Rohilkhand regions. In terms of core voters, these constituencies are the stronghold of the Samajwadi Party. These 10 seats with Yadav-Muslim majority are also known as ‘Yadav Land’. However, for the last 2 elections, Akhilesh Yadav and his party have not been able to get the expected success in this special ground. If Samajwadi Party is not able to wave the flag of victory on the seats here in this Lok Sabha elections, then there will be a fear of losing ground forever.

Strongest equation for Samajwadi Party on these seats

In constituencies like Etah, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Badaun and Sambhal, there is a majority of Yadav voters. Who have been devoted to the Saifai family (Mulayam Singh Yadav family). Along with this, Muslim voters play a decisive role in Sambhal, Aonla, Fatehpur Sikri, Agra and Firozabad. 50% of the population in Sambhal and 33% of the population in Bareilly are Muslims. In the 2014 elections, SP had managed to win only five seats here. Mulayam Singh  won from Azamgarh and Mainpuri. Dimple Yadav from Kannauj, Akshay Yadav from Firozabad and Dharmendra Yadav from Badaun. After Mulayam Singh  left the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat, SP’s Tej Pratap Singh Yadav alias Teju won the Lok Sabha by-election and reached Parliament. Related news

Whether BJP gives ticket to Brijbhushan Sharan Singh or not, his election campaign with the picture of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is going on vigorously and for a long time. Just like Amethi-Rae Bareli for Congress, Kaiserganj seat became a bone of contention for BJP

Nidhi Yadav who stays with Aditi like a shadow

But in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Samajwadi Party had to face a huge defeat here. This was the worst performance of the Samajwadi Party  so far. In this election, only Mulayam Singh Yadav from Mainpuri and Shafiqur Rehman Barq from Sambhal were able to win the election. According to political analysts, the way other backward castes united towards BJP after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the effect of Muslim-Yadav equation which gave victory to SP has reduced. Not getting ticket to Yadavs outside the family can also go against it

The core voters of Samajwadi Party have been Yadavs. But this time the way Akhilesh gave tickets only to people of his family, it can be misinterpreted. BJP and BSP are propagating this in such a way that in the eyes of Samajwadi Party only people of the family are Yadavs. SP is contesting 62 out of total 80 seats in the state in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the remaining seats have been given to allies. But this time only five Yadav candidates have been fielded in the list of Samajwadi Party, in which Akhilesh  himself is contesting from Kannauj seat and his wife Dimple Yadav is in the fray from Mainpuri seat. Dharmendra Yadav is contesting from Azamgarh seat, Shivpal Yadav’s son Aditya  from Badaun and Ram Gopal Yadav’s son Akshay  from Firozabad seat. The way other parties like BJP and BSP are trying to woo the  community, it seems that some percentage of votes will also split in this election. Bahujan Samaj Party has fielded a total of 4 candidates from the  community.

BJP trying to woo Yadav voters

The central leadership of BJP has been trying to woo  votes for the last several years. BJP understands that if it wants to rule UP and Bihar, then it will have to snatch the Yadav community from parties like Samajwadi Party and RJD. Perhaps this is the reason why Mohan Yadav was made the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh. BJP wanted to send a message to the community that Yadavs can get the highest positions in the party. This is the reason why the party has also arranged Mohan Yadav’s visit to the Yadav dominated areas of the state. In the same sequence, the Government of India honoured Mulayam Singh  with the Padma Vibhushan award posthumously. BJP has also joined hands with the largest Yadav Mahasabha of Uttar Pradesh.

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Mohan Yadav, without naming Akhilesh, accused him of nepotism in Saifai and Mainpuri and raised the issue of Shri Krishna Janmabhoomi. There can be no doubt that this has political implications. Mohan Yadav questioned why the SP did not give tickets to other Yadavs of the state? The Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh, while referring to Lord Krishna, has made it clear that the party wants to consolidate any votes by appealing for the development of Brajbhoomi and connecting Karhal and Jaswant Nagar to it.

In the seats where voting is going to take place in the third phase, non-Yadav votes, especially Lodh, have emerged as an important and decisive force. In other constituencies, Kachhi, Shakya and Murao communities have influence, which prove to be decisive in elections.

Due to former CM Kalyan Singh, Lodh has become the core voter of BJP. BJP has also made inroads in Kachhi, Shakya etc. votes. As long as Mulayam Singh Yadav remained strong, he kept these castes together for Samajwadi Party. That is why perhaps in this election, Akhilesh Yadav has prepared the PDA i.e. Backward, Dalit, Minority formula to increase the vote base. But Akhilesh may not get as much support from non-Yadav backward castes in West UP as he is getting in Eastern UP.

Congress is with them but BSP is not there this time

The biggest problem for Samajwadi Party this time is that BSP is not with them. Last time in the 2019 elections, out of these 10 seats, the ruling BJP had won eight. Whereas Samajwadi Party contested the elections in alliance with Bahujan Samaj Party. It managed to win only two seats. This time neither BSP nor RLD is with Samajwadi Party. However, this time Congress has joined hands. With the entry of Bahujan Samaj Party in the fray, there is a triangular contest on all the seats.

Samajwadi Party is contesting the Lok Sabha elections for the first time without Mulayam Singh. Perhaps that is why this is a tough test for Akhilesh Yadav. Since the formation of SP, Mulayam has played a major role in all the elections. Akhilesh is leading the opposition alliance in UP. In the last two Lok Sabha elections and two assembly elections, SP has not been able to do anything special. Mulayam has been called Dharti Putra (son of the soil) because he is a grounded leader. He has made the party a party of Yadavs as well as a party of backward classes. This was possible because he maintained good coordination with the leaders of backward classes. Due to the strong MY equation in the Yadav dominated seats of Etawah, Mainpuri, Kannauj, he has always been winning in the field. Apart from Yadavs, he has always been ahead due to his hold on other influential backward castes. Sometimes in Akhilesh’s politics, it seems that the party’s core voters Yadavs and Muslims may also leave him. It is not clear how much Azam Khan is with Akhilesh today. Om Prakash Rajbhar, Sanjay Nishad, Jayant Chaudhary, Dara Singh Chauhan, Keshav Dev Maurya etc. have left him. His relationship with Apna Dal Kamerawadi has also deteriorated.


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