Patna: Bihar’s political landscape is once again at the center of national discourse. Recently, former Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav sparked a stir by stating that the Modi government’s ability to complete a third term may hinge on the outcome of the Bihar Assembly elections.
Experts believe this is not mere election rhetoric; it underscores that Bihar’s 2025 polls are more than a state-level contest—they could serve as a litmus test for the stability and credibility of the central government.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP fell short of a full majority, securing 240 seats against the 272 needed. The NDA returned to power with coalition support, but its majority remains politically fragile. Key allies like Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP hold a combined 28 seats, while smaller partners like Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena add a few more. With 293 seats in total, the NDA has a narrow cushion of 21 seats above the majority. While technically secure, political analysts caution that stability is not guaranteed.
Bihar’s state politics further complicates the scenario. Nitish Kumar, once a symbol of good governance, appears politically and physically weakened, creating a vacuum in leadership. The BJP has struggled to field a charismatic local face, with efforts to promote leaders like Samrat Chaudhary failing to resonate. Meanwhile, Tejashwi Yadav seeks to position himself as the new-generation leader, building on the Lalu family legacy.
Political strategist Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party also adds uncertainty by appealing to voters disenchanted with traditional caste-based politics, targeting the youth and educated electorate. Analysts predict a decisive role for floating voters, who could swing outcomes and reshape alliances.
While NDA’s majority at the center remains intact, Bihar’s election outcome could have significant psychological and political implications for Modi’s leadership. A defeat in Bihar may weaken his aura of invincibility, while a win would reinforce BJP’s dominance.
In this context, the 2025 Bihar Assembly election is not merely about Patna’s governance—it could influence the trajectory of Delhi politics and the Modi government’s confidence in its third term.
