Washington | India is likely to gradually reduce its purchases of crude oil from Russia as part of a revised trade understanding with the United States that includes tariff relief, according to sources familiar with the matter. While imports are not expected to stop immediately, refiners have been advised to scale back future purchases amid shifting geopolitical and trade priorities.
On Friday, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order отменing the proposed 25 percent punitive tariff on all Indian imports. The move followed New Delhi’s commitment to reduce its dependence on Russian oil, sources said.
Informal Guidance to Refiners
Three sources with direct knowledge of the discussions said Indian oil refiners have not received formal written instructions to halt Russian crude imports. However, they have been informally advised to reduce procurement from Moscow going forward.
Existing purchase commitments—typically made six to eight weeks in advance—are expected to be honoured. After that period, refiners are unlikely to place new orders for Russian crude, the sources added.
State-Owned Firms Begin Phasing Out Imports
Several Indian refiners had already cut ties with Russian suppliers following US sanctions on major exporters last year. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL), and HPCL–Mittal Energy Limited (HMEL) stopped buying Russian oil shortly after the sanctions were announced.
Now, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) are also expected to gradually phase out Russian crude purchases.
India’s largest private refiner, Reliance Industries Limited, may also stop Russian imports after receiving a final shipment of around 150,000 barrels in the coming weeks. Reliance had already curtailed purchases after US sanctions were imposed on Rosneft and Lukoil late last year.
Nayara Energy Remains an Exception
The only notable exception is Nayara Energy, in which Rosneft holds a 49.13 percent stake. Due to its Russian ownership links, Nayara has faced sanctions from the European Union and the United Kingdom, limiting its ability to transact with alternative suppliers.
As a result, Nayara may continue sourcing Russian crude from entities not under sanctions. Sources said US officials were informed of Nayara’s unique situation during talks held in December 2025, and the company could be granted an exemption from India’s broader policy of reducing Russian oil purchases.
Official Silence, Falling Import Volumes
India’s Petroleum Ministry declined to comment on the issue, while the Commerce Ministry and Ministry of External Affairs did not directly address questions regarding commitments made on Russian oil imports.
Data shows that India’s crude oil imports from Russia have already been declining. In December 2025, imports averaged 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), down sharply from a peak of 2.1 million bpd in May 2023. Imports fell further to 1.1 million bpd in January, and are expected to drop below 1 million bpd in the coming weeks. Following the new US trade deal, imports could potentially fall by as much as 50 percent, sources said.
Analysts Weigh In
According to Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler, Russian oil shipments are already locked in for the next 8–10 weeks and remain economically important for India’s refining system.
However, Prashant Vashisht of credit rating agency ICRA said India has sufficient alternatives, including supplies from the United States and Venezuela, to offset reduced Russian imports.
India imports nearly 90 percent of its crude oil requirements. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, discounted Russian oil has helped India manage its import bill. The current shift marks a significant change in strategy as New Delhi balances energy security with evolving global trade and diplomatic considerations.
