New Delhi | The political temperature in Bihar has reached its peak as the state heads into the first and perhaps most decisive phase of the 2025 Assembly elections on November 6. Voting will be held across 121 constituencies in 18 districts — a phase that could well determine the direction of Bihar’s politics and the fate of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and opposition leader Tejashwi Yadav. More than 3.75 crore voters will decide the destiny of 1,314 candidates, making it one of the most closely contested and consequential battles in recent years.
The first phase covers key regions — Mithilanchal, Kosi, Munger division, and the Bhojpur belt — areas where caste dynamics and local power structures have traditionally shaped electoral outcomes. This time, too, the political fight remains deeply rooted in social arithmetic, with direct contests between Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD, the BJP, Congress, and Left parties. Of the 1,314 candidates, 122 are women — a strong indicator of the growing political participation of women in Bihar.
A High-Stakes Contest for Both Alliances
The primary battle is between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), but internal rivalries within both camps are also evident. Within the Grand Alliance, the RJD is contesting 72 seats, Congress 24, and CPI (ML) 14. CPI and VIP are fielding candidates on six seats each, CPM on three, and the Indian Inclusive Party on two.
On the NDA side, the JD(U) is contesting 57 seats, BJP 48, LJP (Ram Vilas) 13, Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) 2, and HAM (Jitan Ram Manjhi’s party) 1. Meanwhile, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM is contesting eight seats, while Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party has fielded candidates on as many as 119 seats — an aggressive debut that has stirred the political waters.
Crime, Power, and Politics: Bihar’s Unchanging Equation
According to the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR), nearly 32% of the candidates in this phase have criminal cases registered against them, with 20% facing serious charges. This reflects an enduring feature of Bihar’s political landscape — the close nexus between crime, influence, and electoral capital.
Flashback: The 2020 Verdict
In the 2020 Assembly elections, the battle for these same 121 seats was a neck-and-neck contest between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan. The Grand Alliance won 61 seats while the NDA secured 59. Chirag Paswan’s LJP, which contested independently then, managed to win only one seat. RJD led the charge with 42 seats, BJP followed with 32, JD(U) bagged 23, Congress 8, CPI(ML) 7, VIP 4, and CPI and CPM two each.
The results put the RJD in a commanding position, but Nitish Kumar, with BJP’s backing, managed to retain power. This time, RJD faces the challenge of maintaining its momentum, while JD(U) and BJP are striving to recover their lost ground.
Nitish’s Trial by Fire
For Nitish Kumar, this phase is no less than a litmus test. Out of JD(U)’s 57 seats, the party faces direct contests with RJD on 36, Congress on 13, and CPI(ML) on 7. Two seats see competition from VIP. In 2020, 23 of JD(U)’s 43 winning MLAs came from these constituencies — a fact that underscores how critical this phase is to Nitish’s political survival.
After two decades as the pivot of Bihar’s power structure, Nitish now faces a test of relevance. If JD(U) falters here, the Chief Minister’s chair could slip away.
Tejashwi’s Path to Power
For Tejashwi Yadav, this phase marks the beginning of his quest to lead Bihar. In the last election, RJD performed impressively in the Bhojpur and Saran regions. This time, Tejashwi aims not only to retain that advantage but also to make fresh gains in new constituencies. Contesting from his family stronghold Raghopur, Tejashwi’s personal victory may be certain, but the bigger challenge lies in ensuring robust performances by alliance partners — Congress and the Left — whose underperformance in 2020 cost him the majority.
Ministers in the Fray
The fate of 16 ministers from the Nitish government hangs in the balance in this phase. Among them are five from JD(U) and eleven from the BJP. Prominent names include BJP’s Health Minister Mangal Pandey (Siwan), Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary (Tarapur), Deputy CM Vijay Sinha (Lakhisarai), and IT Minister Krishna Mantu (Amanour). From JD(U), Water Resources Minister Vijay Choudhary (Sarairanjan), Rural Development Minister Shravan Kumar (Nalanda), Social Welfare Minister Madan Sahni (Bahadurpur), and Information Minister Maheshwar Hazari (Kalyanpur) are key contenders.
The Changing Nature of Bihar Politics
Bihar’s politics has long revolved around alliances and caste arithmetic, but the 2025 election carries a new undertone. The BJP appears less dependent on JD(U) than before, while murmurs of anti-incumbency against Nitish are growing louder. Meanwhile, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj is trying to carve a niche, though its real impact remains to be seen.
Voter concerns remain deeply rooted in unemployment, education, inflation, and law and order. Yet, emotional and caste-based factors continue to weigh heavily on the electorate. Tejashwi is banking on youth aspirations and change, while Nitish is once again invoking his legacy of “sushasan” (good governance) and development.
A Defining Moment for Bihar’s Future
The November 6 vote will not only decide the fate of 121 constituencies but also set the tone for Bihar’s political future. A strong showing by the RJD and its allies could ease Tejashwi’s path to power, while a balanced outcome may intensify the contest in subsequent phases.
Ultimately, this first phase represents the biggest test yet for both the ruling and opposition camps. For Nitish Kumar, the battle is about retaining continuity and legacy; for Tejashwi Yadav, it is about seizing the mantle of Bihar’s next generation leadership.
As Bihar votes, the question looms large — who will the people trust to shape the next five years of the state’s destiny?
