Delhi/Patna – The political temperature in Bihar is rising ahead of the 2025 assembly elections, even though the official campaign has yet to begin. In a dramatic move on Sunday, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati announced that her party will contest all 243 seats in Bihar on its own, refusing to join either the BJP-JD(U)-led NDA or the Congress-RJD-led INDIA bloc.
The decision has rattled established political camps in Bihar, where caste equations and alliances traditionally decide electoral outcomes. Mayawati’s strategy signals a push for BSP’s independent identity—breaking away from the reliance on coalitions that have shaped her party’s past successes.
BSP’s Track Record in Bihar
Though deeply rooted in Uttar Pradesh politics, where Mayawati has served as chief minister four times, the BSP’s performance in Bihar has been modest. In the 2010 assembly elections, it secured 3% of votes, but by 2020 that share had dropped to 0.38%, with the party failing to win a single seat so far.
Despite this, BSP has occasionally made contests tougher—such as in Gopalganj in 2020—by drawing sizeable votes. Analysts argue the challenge for BSP has always been converting its vote share into actual seats, with Dalit and Muslim votes already divided among RJD, JD(U), and Congress.
Why Mayawati is Going Solo
Mayawati has experienced both the benefits and limits of alliances. In 2019, her tie-up with the Samajwadi Party won BSP 10 Lok Sabha seats. But contesting alone in 2024 led to a complete wipeout. She now believes that “borrowed victories” through alliances are unsustainable and that the BSP must fight under its own banner of Ambedkar and Kanshi Ram’s ideology.
For Bihar, the party has divided the state into three zones, assigning senior leaders to manage each. Mayawati has entrusted her nephew and BSP’s national coordinator Aakash Anand with leading the campaign. Anand will launch an “Adhikar Yatra” in September, targeting Dalits, Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), and Pasmanda Muslims—together accounting for nearly 50% of Bihar’s population.
Caste Equations and Political Stakes
Bihar’s caste arithmetic is complex. Dalits make up about 16%, EBCs around 20%, and Muslims about 17%, with Pasmanda Muslims forming the largest segment. RJD traditionally banks on the Yadav-Muslim base, JD(U) on Kurmi-Koeri and EBC support, while the BJP holds sway among upper castes and urban voters. BSP’s gamble is to consolidate Dalits, EBCs, and Pasmanda Muslims into a third front.
Political observers warn that BSP’s entry could split Dalit and Muslim votes, indirectly benefiting the NDA. In closely fought Bihar elections, even a 2–3% vote share swing can alter results in multiple constituencies.
Aakash Anand’s Test of Leadership
The Bihar elections will also test the political skills of Aakash Anand, who carries the responsibility of strengthening BSP’s organization and voter outreach. Success in even a few seats could cement his leadership credentials, while failure may reinforce the perception of BSP as a “vote-cutter” party.
Beyond Elections: A Message of Independence
Mayawati’s decision is more than a tactical electoral move—it is a political statement. She has made it clear that BSP is no longer dependent on alliances and will fight on its own terms. While risky, this could help the party strengthen its independent identity on the national stage.
The 2025 Bihar elections will determine whether BSP can transform its presence into a meaningful force or whether its influence will continue to shrink outside Uttar Pradesh. Either way, Mayawati has ensured that the state’s political contest will not be limited to just NDA versus INDIA.
